I am curious, per the other thread that suggests we may own one of the last great petrol sports cars, when regulations will further tighten on the sound and performance of combustion engine vehicles? I am not quite clear how and if that comes, but I already know my car sounds louder in my neighborhood, as our area is adopting electric cars pretty fast. Then you add in emissions stuff, and so many people going EV like VW's Porsche and Audi. I assume it would be local noise ordinances about cars prior to environmental stuff, but could there ever be a day and age, in our lifetimes, where we see loud or gas vehicles get legislated to obscurity? I mean, as autonomous hit the roads, and people's interest in cars wanes, one might imagine insurance would get expensive enough to make operating a traditional engined car prohibitively expensive. I assume it's happening somewhere already? Sometimes I get embarrassed about the pops and crackles (no really, I have a problem in that I am addicted to them, and cannot stop), and I know some cars have "neighborly" mode for startup, so you don't wake everyone in the hood. I'm just curious what you guys think will happen to our cars, classic muscle cars, baby boomer car collections that come back on the market, etc.... Those Supras that are so popular and loud, what happens to all that? Nothing?

 

I suggest getting a shotgun, a large dog on a chain, and a rocking chair for your porch. Also make sure to dig deep storm cellar.

I think people will get too busy with floods, hurricanes and droughts to care about cars. That is, if you are able to afford the fuel and roads still passable in your area, you will be able to drive it.

 

Fishbits, I don't see a dire future for gas engines. Knowing a bit about the Oil/Gas/Mineral business, tells me that now with US energy independence, we'll have plenty of fuel for our rides. The enviros will continue to clamor for electrics and increased fuel efficiency, yet it's backfiring (pun) to a degree. CA, for example now has a surcharge on EV's offsetting the missed gas taxes. A favorite memory is passing an EV, with the personal plate "NO OIL." These lamebrains don't think, nor likely even know what it takes to produce their electricity = fossil fuels. Current administration in DC is rolling back CAFE regulations, and the battle has begun with CA and other states.
A greater dent in the performance car consumption is our youth's loss of interest in driving, and "cool" cars in general. All IMHO....think I'll drop my top, leave my nbhd -- quietly -- and go make wondrous sounds among the canyon walls!

 

Teslas got 34% short interest and $10B in new debt. Demand has dried up (like all cars) and they are still losing money. S&P has removed their access to the bond market with a junk rating, driving double-digit interest on capital. Their Altman Z score is below 1.0, anything below 1.3 is defined as bankruptcy within 12 months.

Add to that, Lithium Ion is not a viable battery technology for large non-semi-disposable items. It loses capacity too quickly, as much as 16% per year in hot climates when stored at full charge. The only successful EV so far has been the Leaf, because a new battery is "Only" $7K. A Prius hybrid battery is $13K. Tesla batteries cost $35K to $100K (for the now unsupported original Roadster). And the cheap-battery Leaf already has the worst resale value of any car in history.

But the real nail in the EV coffin is utility rates. Unlike gasoline, we all heavily subsidize electricity utility costs. The grid is already stressed, and 700,000W cars aren't servicable even at low volume without spiking utility bills to the Moon, for everyone, not just EV drivers. That's why the US government just outlawed incandescent light bulbs.

EPA says: "If every American switched one 60W incandescent bulb to a 35W CFL, it would save more than $600 million in annual energy costs and prevent greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to 800,000 cars." https://archive.epa.gov/epapages/new...d0073d8d1.html So imagine the global cooling if every American got rid of a 700,000W Tesla.

Fracking has quadrupled proven oil reserves to something like 30,000 years at current demand. And new fracking well assembly time has dropped from 33 days on average to under 2 hours, already making the US the biggest exporter of oil in the world today.

Gasoline isn't going anywhere, EVs are.

 

Speaking of canyon walls.... River Road in Moab is glorious.

There's so many EV rebates and programs, but it's interesting they're not getting utilized. Too complex, and marginalized audiences don't feel they're for "them". Can't find the article, but it's a big part of lack of traction that there's not "everyman" electric cars vs status symbols.
And I'm not against them to any degree. I do my part for the environment... no kids, consciously flying less, reduction of meat consumption, etc. I don't think my actions will help in any other way than just leading by example, but for the most part it's all to justify not feeling bad about my peppy little GT outside. =)

But I've seen those "no gas" (we may be in the same area) type license plates, and there's a Tesla X by me that says NVREMPT or something, and it's just so absurd. BROCEPHUS, you just got a different type of gas tank. And although most EV in CA are charged on wind and solar, they're definitely still being charged off coal grids most places in the country, and are more polluting than a normal petrol commuter car. This Economist data is approx 4.75 years old, so I am sure it's far better by now: https://www.economist.com/science-an...aner-than-what

But I certainly like the notion of an EV, if it feels like I am in a spaceship going warp speed. =) Typically i don't really have an opinion (or want one) if it's not informed by data or facts. I'm agnostic on EV... if they float your boat, have fun! I do think they need their own "ringtones". One hit my dad, and although it ran a stop sign, you can't react to what you can't hear. Sucks.

And not just the time it takes for an economy to shift, this one will be slightly different as autonomous electric fleets come on board. And the majority of car brands will suffer as I imagine a lot of consumer will stop buying single units, and more will be purchased as fleets of "share" cars like Get-A-Round, etc. The disruption coming will be fascinating to watch.

And I expected hover cars by now. It would help with road infrastructure. But, we do have self-healing concrete now. Just apply to potholes please.

But point well taken that we're not going to see immediate impacts. Our industry of travel is talking about the restricted tourism happening in over-tourism areas (Santorini, Iceland, Venice, etc) and the future of restricted air travel due to carbon offload. Talk about EVs we really need... it's airplanes.

 

EVs, in general, aside.... Tesla seems in a bad way.
And aside from EVs on coal grids, the battery toxicity is something INSANE. So there's that. Yeah.
Musk is both a genius/brilliant mind, and a showman. The "Million Mile battery" tech he touts has been suggested to be legit:
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-ma...million-miles/

We shall see. But fair points all around.