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Some months ago I was listening to a local car critic with a Saturday morning radio show. In the first hour of his show he usually invites one or more of his "buddies" in the car business (i.e. the owners or managers of local dealerships who sponsor his program) for a talk session. They were discussing how cars are being kept on the road much longer now than anyone would have ever planned for. The average age is over 12 years now and projected to continue to rise. They brought up a few factors, including that cars were generally more reliable than they have been in the past. They also mentioned that some customers were specifically concerned about buying the last gasoline version of whatever with the intention to keep it as long as possible and stave off buying an electric car. But the conclusion was that its mostly because the cost of new cars has risen much faster than average income. In 1961, the average new car in the US was around $2,300. Going by the Consumer Price Index, it should be about $21,000 today, but its $38,000. Financing for a new car used to be typically no more than three years when my parents were doing it, to four years when I started, to five and now seven years is pretty common. And even that wouldn't be possible for most buyers if the interest rates weren't down to almost nothing.

The discussion then got into the discontinuation of "low priced" models. They can still manufacture $15,000 cars, but there's not much room for profit so they've quit trying. I couldn't find the article again but I had recently read somewhere else that X number of compact models had been discontinued in the last five years and I remember thinking it seemed like a lot. But their discussion went on to cover how instead of selling brand new compact cars and suvs, what they were doing was selling used mid-sized cars and suvs with five-year extended warranties. Essentially the "certified pre-owned" programs have replaced the "entry level" new car. And of course, the extended warranty is a popular way for even the middle-class to be able to "move up" into a luxury vehicle and manage risk.

So I think the notion of keeping parts in stock for five to seven years is probably primarily going to be driven by the duration of a manufacturers "certified pre-owned" warranty program. They'd be in a heap of hurt if all those 2-year old cars with five year warranties suddenly need a critical component at six years old and there are none available. Of course that will only apply to parts that are covered in the warranty. For cosmetic parts or stuff like your sun visors are SOL.

I knew that someday, I would want to restore my Toyota Supra so back in the late 90s, I joined my own "part-of-the-month club", kind of like Columbia House Records but for auto parts. By about 2005 or 6 I had one of just about every piece of trim and weatherstrip (there were a few that were already discontinued before I got around to them). I hadn't done it yet only because it still looks pretty decent (the average person doesn't notice, but I know where the flaws are). I keep putting it off till next year, every year, LOL. If you are really serious about wanting to keep a car long-term, then that's probably what you need to do is make a plan and just stock up on your own parts while you can. Buy the stuff you think you'll need before its gone. Sort of the automotive version of pandemic prepping.