So we have cars which are a couple of decades old, more or less. This means that components are suffering the onslaughts of age and wear - but I have a near perfect solution.

Buy a second car for components - but herein lies the problem.

Since you cannot know which part will need replacing, your support car needs to be both complete and running. But if something failed, it would be terrible to disable a perfectly functional support car. There can be no other solution, other than to obtain a third, functioning vehicle to support the first two........but if something failed...........

I recognise that it would perhaps be considered ungentlemanly to end up owning the entire global stock of the X100, but I need advice on when and how, to bring this hypothetical purchase spree to an end.

 

LOL!

Diddion,

A friend of mine works for Honda, and they keep Reliability & Maintenance charts for all their car components. This is essentially a functionality report, over time and usage, for all of the car parts.

So in keeping with the spirit of your thread, I would use this info to derive an inverse probability of failure graph of all the X100 components and that would give you an accurate indication of how many cars you need to buy, to keep yours functional. Theoretically, your "spare" cars would need to be "younger" than your current car.

 

Sadly, this is likely futile. Q4 registrations for the XK8 coupe and convertible in Great Britain are plotted against year below (not easy to do this for the US, but likely similar). You can clearly see the trendlines of both the coupe and convertible linearly descending towards zero. The projections show that the coupe disappears in Great Britain in 2033, and the convertible opens its last registered top in 2039. Disturbingly, the last three years have changed the coupe's slope, heading more quickly towards zero (2026). Importation from the US/EU would seem to be a way to stave off this catastrophe (you can decide for yourself whether the pun was intentional or not), but similar trends apply there too, and it's harder to see from that side of the car...


The sad, sad Great Britain statistics on the XK8 coupe and convertible (courtesy UK Department for Transport and Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency)

 

Many years ago I managed an automobile glass manufacturing plant. When Toyota first began exporting vehicles to the UK, they fitted blue glass and we were the only company in Europe with the capability to produce this. I recall discusions with Toyota when they explained their marketing strategy. The vehicles were sold well below the comparative market sector and it was mystifying how they could do this. The explanation was the profit lay in aftersales parts and they controlled the supply chain. They knew the lifespan of starters, alternators etc, etc and could calculate the replacement requirement. In the case of windscreens, the breakage rate was statistical and costed to deliver a hefty profit.

Graham

 

My impressions from reading the forums and scanning a wide range of advertising.

The survival rate of XK8/XKR is good. The two main killers are accidents and powertrain failures. The first because insurance companies prefer to write-off where repairs would exceed about 60% of the value and the second because owners are often understandably reluctant to throw almost as much or even more money at the vehicle than is is worth.

It's rare to see "rough" examples and the two door models appear to attract a higher level of enthusiast owner than the four door models. Within the bubble of our forums, XK8/XKR has our highest traffic in terms of postings and views. The level of knowledge and experience exceeds other models except where the same members follow multiple model forums.

In the UK, we have a number of specialist Jaguar breakers and used parts are usually easy to find with the exception of plastic trim items. Our US and Australian members are not so fortunate and often have to be ingenious and inventive to keep their vehicles on the road.

Other than the change in buyers' wants and needs which are being manipulated by the tree huggers in Europe to view large capacity V8's as the spawn of the devil, the future for the XK8/XKR as a desireable and collectible vehicle is unlikely to disappear. As the vehicle numbers decrease, values should rise and the aftermarket see opportunity for profits in supplying parts and services.

The good news is Diddion will have a large collection of spare vehicles to keep everyone else on the road.

Graham

 

In case it wasn't clear, tongue in cheek on the stats above, though they are the actual numbers. My people are working on a study comparing men and women's fatalities from head injuries, and I just happened to have the data readily available.

It is quite likely that the attrition curve will level out unless gasoline engines, or various types of gasoline engines, are banned in the UK at some point. The kicker is emissions. Based on recent efforts in the California legislature, it seems quite possible before 2033 that California attempts to ban automobile gasoline engines on the basis that they emit CO2 (recent proposed legislation that did not get very far for now). What happens after that is anyone's guess, but will be a battle in the US between the big cities and suburbia/rural. Hopefully not an actual battle.

 

Dale,

As you were posting the graphic, I was looking at our DVLA website. The calculations are complicated by SORN (Statutory Off Road Notification) and DVLA's failure to designate the model change in 2005 but there's plenty data available:

https://www.gov.uk/government/statis...-licensed-cars

Is the equivalent data not available in the Land of the Free, Home of the Brave? I thought open data was more accepted in the USA but perhaps it's because vehicles are registered at State and not National level?

I've been able to find accurate figures for CO2 emissions on Jaguars but CO2 emissions by MP's (Members of Parliament) and Environmentalists discussing global warming are not so readily available.

Graham

 

Indeed. But it is quite clear that the vast majority of us will not have the 'exemption' available to those ordering us around.

 

Yes, unfortunately, though we are United'ish', we are still a collection of States. So, I can get aggregate data on body type, but not easily by model. The model data is somewhat available for purchase from various states. Since being an academic is the corporate equivalent of 'the dole' or 'welfare', I generally beg for what I need or acquire it free from UK/Europe...

Personally, I do want to know what percentage of XK8's I own in Durham County, NC. Alas, I have not been able to get NC to cough that data up.

 

I have the XK8/XKR Production numbers by year:





And here's the USA Sales:




Unfortunately I've never found these broken down into type like the Production figures.

I think you're right. Politics could pose a bigger threat to continued enjoyment of XK8/XKR than attrition.

Graham

 

GGG, et al,
Since I (rather optimistically??) like to think of the XK8/XKR as a natural evolution of the XKE, does anyone have these same production figures for the E-Type?

 

Here's a link to JDHT detailing E-Type chassis numbers:
https://www.jaguarheritage.com/files...is_numbers.pdf

Here's an XKE website with production numbers:
XKE Data - Catalog - Car Numbers - Jaguar E-Type (XKE) information, articles, photos and register

Graham

 

And here's the number still on the GB roads. I think these are a bit shakier than the XK8 numbers, but it's everything Transport calls an E-type. Note, the number is mildly increasing and something dramatic must have happened to the definition in the 1995-6 timeframe. For grins, I added the deux chevaux.

E-Types rising. 2CVs asymptoting.

 

Good information. Looks like similar overall production number so I guess I need to hang on to my XK for about another 20yrs before it starts increasing in value? Oh, well, I bought it as an investment in driving pleasure, not monetary.

 

OK, I’ll come clean. This is a Howard Gem. Whilst admittedly not a Jaguar (though easily confusible, I know) it is regarded by many as the Rolls Royce of rotavators - a third of a tonne of sheer functional beauty, despite the fact that my wife calls them lobsters. And not a cam bus in sight.

This thread took a somewhat surprising, technical turn, so I need to confess that the maintenance schedule was one that I actually adopted for my Gems. Eventually I had, in the form of whole or dismantled machines, thirteen of them, and at any one time may have had one running, so you can make up your mind if the strategy worked.

I now have just two, which came with me to Portugal. One of them, with a rebuilt engine, works.
Plus another rebuilt, unused engine
plus another engine
plus a box of carbs and bits
plus box of magnetos and bits
plus a complete gearbox
plus air filters, rotors, spare wheels and tyres, clutch, and a load of other stuff.

I don’t feel completely safe. I wonder what could go wrong next.......

 

And you never will. Embrace the randomness of all creation and comfort yourself in the knowledge that the multiple inexplicable highly improbable failures are not personally directed at you. Unless they are...