Special Today Only !!!!

With Jaguar factory shut down & near bankruptcy, prices are slashed 50% off MSRP on all new 2020 F-Types being delivered to dealers today !!!

To check if your local Jaguar dealer is on the delivery list, you must call the special hotline #800-APRIL-FOOLS....

 

Only a day late!

 

The joke is 50% is not enough.

 

Nah, the sick joke is the prices in Oz vs the prices in the US.
Try damn near three times as much here, even after accounting for the crap exchange rate.
You mob have no idea how lucky you are!

 

Right now, most industrial and finanicial markets have no bids, only asks. We are in a period that has no known historical precedent at this scale of price discovery. It has yet to begin, markets are frozen.

Governments are desperately trying to kill production to boost prices--a stupid idea lifted from 1930s crop burning--but with no buyers, unmatched historical unemployment (already 2x higher than peak UE in 1932), and 0.82% fractional reserve deflation roaring (122x deleveraging compared to 9x in 1932) it just doesn't matter. I'll double down and say 50% off is a bad deal, wait a year for 80% off, or better.

Technically speaking, deflation should burn unstoppably to meet actual monetary deposits, which is currently 0.82 cents on the dollar. The 1930s Great Depression had a 10% monetary deposit fractional reserve requirement and prices fell 90%. The Dow Jones went from 386 to 38.

Their anticipated V shaped recovery only took 25 years, but that was probably accelerated by bombing global competition to rubble. I guess that comes next.

 

So how much are taxes, fees, & other BS charges to ship/buy down under....?

 

About double again the real price/cost.
So a $100,000 F-Type R ex-factory sells in Oz for $300,000.
A chunk of that is the Luxury Car Tax, introduced some 20 years ago to help protect the local car manufacturing industry - Holden (GM), Ford & Toyota.
They are all gone now, the Oz car industry is dead as a dodo, but guess what the LCT remains although it has nothing to protect!

 

$100,000 US Dollars = $165,180 Australian Dollars

So your $300,000 Australian = $181,620 US Dollars?

Meaning I shouldn't complain about the $100,000 USD I pay in Texas USA + 6.25% ($6,250) state taxes

Also, Top-Tier Premium 93 Octane gas at Costco here in Houston is $1.85/ gallon

 

Yep, you definitely should not complain about paying a measly $100k for a new F-Type R!
Also, top tier gas (petrol) - 98 octane - here in South Oz is right this minute the cheapest it has been since 2004, about $1.10 AU a litre so around $4.00 AU a gallon.
Call it $3.00 US a gallon, still a helluva lot more than you pay.
A month ago it was $1.60 AU a litre.

 

Can I put 1% dn? Maybe get two, one for a rainy day?

 

Current prices will seem a bargain when interest rates jump to 18%, and they will, sure prices of Jags will come down even further with fewer buyers, but money will be impossible to get. Seen it in the 80's.

Ok if you are a cash buyer you will get a Jag for half the price- but why would you do that when you can buy stocks for 80% off that it will go up by 150% eventually.

 

I highly doubt that, as US interest rates are 0% & most the G8/First-world countries are at negative interest rates: Switzerland -0.84%, Germany -0.73%, Nederlands -0.57%, France -0.24%, etc...

Deflationary & Stagnation will be here for awhile...

 

US 30 day T-Bill rates (which the Fed funds rate mimics) have varied from -0.25 to +0.15 recently, and have regularly stabilized in negative territory.

The only previous time US interest rates went negative was for a brief moment in 1939 when Hitler rolled into Poland. I think you are right that US rates will ultimately head much deeper into negative territory. I don't think stagflation, to the extent that anyone knows what that means, will be the case. This is far worse than any deflation on record due to the suicidal nature of the pin, as well as the monstrous size if the bubble.

The only good parallel in US history is poorly documented, but it closely aligned, that is Jackson ousting the central bank and completely extinguishing the currency supply in the late 1830s. All prices went to zero and the US returned to sound money for the next 75 years and after just two years of extreme national poverty, the industrial revolution was born. We don't have that kind of leadership today, but I do believe the Federal Reserve banking system will ultimately be ousted (2-3 years). There will be multiple new currency options floated, and the direction we choose will determine if the US lives or dies.

 

Stagnation yes, but deflation NOT. Food prices here have jumped by over 50% in the last month, and are still climbing.

 

That fuel sounds a bit cheap! The last lot of 98 I bought was a week ago and it was NZD 2.269 per litre or AUD 2.23.

At least our F Type R's are cheaper at only NZD 214,000!

 

I spoke too soon, the petrol price here has just spiked to $1.45 per litre (for 98 octane) when all the "experts" assured us it would stay down at $1.10 for many months yet.
So of course Murphy's law struck me, I have been running on about 1/4 of a tank the last few days and put off filling up waiting/expecting the price to drop further.
Looks like I'm "isolating in place" for a while now!

 

Deflation is a shinking of the currency supply, not necessarily prices. The two are linked but individual item prices will buck or exceed the trend depending on market stresses. Think of the currency supply as the sea level being drained or pumped higher, and indivual boats on waves representing certain items' prices.

The water is created 100% by loan debt. Every penny in circulation is traceable to a loan. So when bank lending is high, water is pumped into the ocean and prices should rise. Banks then capture excess production via loan service fees and interest. Most people work all year, only to break even or worse, as the friuts of their labor find their way to bankers. So as long as monetary inflation, bank lending, is positive, banks get richer. That is why inflation is accompanied by high interest rates, the line at the loan window is long so banks raise the price of new currency.

But new efficiences are exponentially deflationary, as people produce more supply, prices drop. In a sound money system, this results in prosperity, as goods and services become less and less expensive making average people rich.

That is the true reason global production has been halted and will stay halted until plentiful supply is burned.

Another massively deflationary force is loan default, as the currency the bank printed is carried as a liability until repaid. Since banks currently lend 120 to 1 above deposits, it doesn't take many loan defaults to make a bank insolvent, just 1 default per 120 loans minus the cash flow generated by the surviving loans.

So the math is easy.
$1 in deposits
$122 loaned @ 4% = $5 in cash flow
So it takes ~ 6 loan defaults of 122, or a 5% default rate to make a modern bank insolvent.

In a fiat currency system deflation is disastrous for the money creation ponzi striving to meter rates to steal new production. Interest rates quickly fall to zero, but without entrepreneurs wanting to take loans/risks, money creation stops and the bubble deflates.

Most experts seem to agree that once deflation starts it is unstoppable until circulation = deposits, but no one really knows. That is what happened in the early 1930s.

Bottom line: Expect the monetary sea level to fall and the wave luxury sportscars once rode to crest and crash too. My opinion is that we will definitely exceed all precedents, which was a 90% deflation over a 2.5 year period.

 

RacerX, thanks.
One consideration not being taken into account by any of the traditionalists:
We have unprecedented amount of opportunity in the pipeline for productivity.

For the sake of simplicity imagine- we are going to build 1000 hospitals, put geothermal in every home. High speed internet and 5G for all. Massive positive change in domestic manufacturing. What will all this do?

 

admirable dream. Much of the US has no broadband internet much less 5G. And I’ve only seen two 3D printers in person. We’re still a couple Of decades away from your vision.

 

I've heard calls to ban 5G because it causes cancer and is used for mind control

It might be farther away than that. I don't think so, and am hoping that's not just wishful thinking.