Does anyone have any ideas as to what the re-sale price of the 2014 Base model will be when leases start getting turned in next year? I'm kind of hoping that I can snag one for high $40's or maybe low $50's. Thoughts?

 

I suppose it's possible. I was looking to possibly trade for a manual car and worked the numbers with my dealer. He offered a $55K trade-in price for my base convertible w/ no options, and I only paid 62K for it new, in June 2014. That would equate to high 50K retail price. A year from now you'll probably be in the ballpark.

 

Considering there are listings right now for $55K I would say you have a safe bet there.

 

I'm hoping so, I'll be looking for a car with no options, except maybe the active exhaust, although from what I've read, cutting out the resonator will give me the same effect.

 

Definitely. 3 year residual is probably around around 55%. On a base without any options (around $65K MSRP) that's $35K. Depending on condition, mileage, etc. you can definitely pick one up for $40K.

 

%55? Wow I didn't know it was that low. I hope you're right, I plan on buying around March of next year when my company issues annual bonuses.

 

I'd verify that. Sounds too low to me.

 

~ 55% for 3 years isn't low. Remember, you take the biggest depreciation hit in the first couple of years. Also, convertible depreciation is also typically higher. As well as sports car depreciation is higher than average. There was a recent post on the porsche forum. A guy spent $170 (including lots of options) on his 911. Probably can get about $90 after 3 years for it!

 

Here you go: ALG Weighs In On Residuals for High-End Sports Cars | Autoremarketing

"Next up was the 2014 Jaguar F-Type. Its 36-month residual (53 percent) was slightly ahead of the average for the premium roadster segment (52 percent), but beat the Jaguar brand by 9 percentage points."

 

I'll add that "residual value" doesn't 100% translate into resale value. If you buy from a dealer there will be markup, etc. But it'll give you ballpark figure of where to start.

 

So possibly with some aggressive negotiation with the dealer, I should be able to hit my price range no problem then? At least thats what I've gathered from the %53 residual.

 

I bought my '14 S last Jan at just over 70% (from dealer, <10K miles), so I think you're in the range.

 

I'm looking at today's ALG residuals and the base 2014 convertible is reporting 55% residual value at 36 months.

Things are looking better for the 2015 models though. The 2015 base coupe is looking like 61% and the 2015 base vert is looking like 60% residual (both @ 36-month projected residual values.)

 

Residual value is mostly useful for lease projections. If you want to know what the car will trade for to a dealer, look at the black book values (auctions, etc.) that will set your baseline and many dealerships won't buy a car for more than what the black book value shows. Unless they are making money elsewhere in the deal.

Black book retail value (national average) as of today for a 2014 F-Type base 2d convertible with 24k miles is looking like $54K (rough), $60K (average), $64K (clean), and $66K (extra clean.) Trade-in values often run about 90% of those numbers.

 

Thanks, and that is very encouraging since I paid less for my car new with less than 100 miles on the clock. It also looks like my dealer was low-balling me by offering $55K in trade when I considered ordering a manual. My car is extra clean w/ 6K miles. I walked away from his "best offer" rather quickly.

It also confirms my suspicion that the lease residual number is not necessarily what you can buy a car for, unless you get very lucky.

 

Guys, remember, the OP asked for the value of the car next year, when the first batch of 3 year leases end. So the $40K figured is for a barebones, 3 year old car. Right now yes it's still probably in the $50s because it's only a 2 year old car, but give it another year and you will start seeing it into the $40s. $65 to $40 in 3 years is actually pretty reasonable. Again, lots of factors in final price. But it's just a fact that sports cars depreciate a lot! Expensive hobby Look Cayman prices. You can definitely find Caymans in the $30s and $40s.

 

The buyout on my 33 month lease is 59% of MSRP. You should be ok even for a V6S.

 

Of course. I was mainly confirming what the current residuals are for the car he asked about. I only mentioned the black book numbers to show how real world valuation is tracking to those estimated residual numbers.

We can never be sure of what the cars will really be worth, but I agree that it should be reasonable to find a very clean 2014 base model F-Type (that originally sold in the $65K range) for resale around the $40K price point at this time next year. However, you should theoretically be able to find a V8S in the $50K range too, which may be a better bargain.

 

Yes, and I said in post #2 that a year or so from now, his price point should be no problem.

 

And this is what I'm hoping for. I've been very fortunate over the years to pick up some great deals on used premium cars and I'm hoping that will continue with an F-Type. Currently, I'm looking at if build quality, materials, etc are better in the 2015 MY as opposed to the 2014 MY. I'm not in a hurry but definitely want to get the car in it's mid life cycle or newer.