Is there a math expert out there who can accurately estimate how many cars were manufactured exactly like mine? Thanks for your help, and please include your rationale with your reply. Here are the facts:

I recently purchased a gorgeous 2009 XKR Portfolio convertible with a black soft top, oak veneer dash, adaptive cruise control, 2-tone Ivory with Slate interior, and Alcon brakes. I knew it was a limited production vehicle, and wanted to know just how rare it actually is. So I wrote to Jaguar, and was told that for the 2009 model year, Jaguar produced 180 XKR Portfolio coupes and 200 convertibles. Although I asked, they didn't tell me how many were exactly like mine!

Attached is the email I received from Jaguar in response to my inquiry.


I realize that the answer to my question depends on the model (coupe or convertible) and the selections and options on that particular vehicle.

All 2009 XKR Portfolios were painted Shadow Gray, a color exclusive to that model. Options available for 2009 XKR Portfolio models included the following:
1. Dash trim: either Rich Oak veneer or Engine Spun Aluminum dash finish, the latter with Piano Black instrument panel
2. Upholstery: either Charcoal with Cranberry twin needle stitching or Ivory with Slate twin needle stitching
3. Convertible top: either dark gray or black
4. Adaptive Cruise Control (add $2,300)
I'm not sure, but I think the Alcon brakes were standard on all Portfolios. (Note: correction - Alcon brakes were a $5,000 option in 2009; standard on 2008 Portfolios).

So, out of 200 convertibles,
1. How many soft tops were gray and how many were black? Assuming 80% black, that narrow the result to 160 (200 x 80%). (All my assumptions are my WAGs, with no statistical basis.)
2. How many dash trims were oak or aluminum? Most of the cars I've seen on line had the aluminum dash, so my WAG is 40% oak; that narrows the result to 64 (160 x 40%).
3. How many interiors were upholstered in charcoal or ivory/slate? Most of the cars I've seen on line were charcoal, so my WAG is 40% ivory/slate; that narrows the result to 26 (64 x 40%).
4. How many had adaptive cruise? I saw only one other car on line with ACC, so my WAG is 20% with ACC; that narrows the result to 5 (26 x 20%).

Am I realistic in assuming that there are only around 5 2009 XKR Portfolio Convertibles out there that are exactly like mine?

 

It has been almost 4 years since my original post and there have been no replies. During that time, I haven't seen any other 2009 XKR Portfolio Convertibles for sale that are exactly like mine.

A couple of days ago, Richzak (also a 2009 XKR Portfolio Convertible owner) brought to my attention a car on eBay that he thought was identical to mine. Since the eBay ad didn't mention the soft top color, and the one photo of a wheel wasn't sharp enough to tell if it had Alcon brakes, I contacted the dealer and asked about those and other details. Although the ad on the dealer's website says it has a compact spare, the dealer confirmed that was an error and that it does not have a spare. The dealer also confirmed that it has a black soft top, Alcon brakes, and adaptive cruise. VIN SAJWA46C699B28997.

The colors and options make it identical to mine. This is the first one I am aware of. Are there any more out there?

Here's the link to eBay ad: Jaguar XK XKR | eBay The auction ends in 4 days and the reserve has not yet been met. Scroll down for the free CarFax report, which reveals 2 prior owners and front-end accident damage. I recommend getting a PPI (pre-purchase inspection) by (1) a Jaguar dealer and (2) a body shop qualified to do aluminum repairs before buying this car.

The car is at Mungenast Lexus in St. Louis. Asking price is $39,910, which I think is a fair starting point considering it has 53,860 miles, 2 owners, and accident damage. I also noted that the picture of the engine compartment reveals that it is missing some engine cover fasteners and the wheels appear to have curb rash. Here is their website: 2009 Jaguar XK Series - Manchester, MO - Mungenast Lexus of St. Louis - T7560C


This is a very rare XKR, and worth considering.

Stuart

 

Also, know, if there is curb rash, there can be bent rims...and "Oh my", even a few cracked ones. Now we're talking new wheels. don't even attempt to comprehend factory wheels and their prices.,,Just saying.
Happy Motoring....

 

There were only two XK's at our local British Car Day, one was a Portfolio convertible.

 

The Portfolio convertible at Larz Anderson British Car Day was mine. It's a 2008 celestial black, black interior, with the oak trim.

 

You need a statistician to answer your question. I suspect all they can give you is probabilities. With only 200 convertibles made, you are already in a fairly small group. Whether this makes it more valuable, time will tell.

 

I own the sea frost green coupe parked in the main section.

 

Sounds like mine, as well.... knomad

 

Mosesbotbol:


We loved your car. Great color combination and looks.

 

I spotted one at a local Chrysler dealer. It was like yours, portfolio package, interior so forth. But it had different wheels. A salesman tried selling me the car(even though it wasn't theirs) until I told him I have one. He was like sure sure. Then I pointed to my BRG one parked behind it. As momma says, you can't fix stupid.

 

I must have just become 1 of 180 !!

 

Welcome to the forum! I hope you enjoy yours as much as I've enjoyed mine. Be sure to get a reflective sunshade to protect your leather dash from the Texas sun. The forum has lots of helpful tips.

 

Nice wheels!!! Welcome to the forum.

 

Welcome and good luck but most of all enjoy the ride.

 

Thank You All.


I will certainly enjoy it !!


Will get a shade too

 

From a statistical viewpoint, the number of cars with a given option is a relatively easy answer if we pretend that the choice of options are uniform and independent. Uniform means that equal numbers of people choose each of the available options (that is, 50% of people choose the aluminum dash and 50% choose the oak dash) and independent means the choice of one option doesn't influence the choice of another (that is, choosing the grey soft top doesn't influence people to get black upholstery).

Using the options I think were available:

• Drop top (black/grey)
• Dash (aluminum/oak)
• Upholstery (charcoal/ivory)
• Brakes (Alcon/regular)
• Adaptive Cruise (yes/no)
• Wheels (Selena/Senta)

we see six options with two possible choices each. Running the math with 200 total vehicles, we get a theoretical number of 3 identical cars. If there were more options available than what I listed above, then the theoretical number gets smaller.

Of course, theoretical and real are two very different animals. While the bespoke cars are configured to their new owner's tastes, if a car was outfitted by Jaguar there may be a preferred template for option choice. Additionally, the extra cost for brakes, adaptive cruise, and wheel options may skew the actual number of those options chosen. For example, my portfolio (black top, charcoal upholstery, oak veneer) has the base option for brakes, adaptive cruise, and wheels. If we assume that money considerations drove 75% of the purchasers to choose the no-cost option, the number of cars specifically like mine goes from 3 to 10.

If we use your SWAG guesses for the four options and 50% for brakes and wheels, there is probably 1 car like yours and 11 cars like mine. The difference between your answer and mine is reall the addition of the wheel and brake options. Otherwise your math was correct.

 

Thanks for the math analysis. Your assumptions about options are correct, except for the wheels. I'm pretty sure that all 2009 XKR Portfolio models left the factory with Selena wheels. They were unique to the Portfolio and not available from the factory on other 2009 XK/XKR models.

If a 2009 XKR Portfolio has Senta wheels, they were replacements for the original Selenas.

The convertible top color, dash trim, and upholstery color were no-cost options. Adaptive Cruise Control was a $2,300 option and the Alcon Performance Brake Package was a $5,000 option.

 

That changes the final estimate a bit. Again using your option estimates, there would be 2 cars just like yours. You're still in the 1%